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Last Modified on 1/8/2019
You need to learn how to find value bets and use value betting to your advantage if you are to establish yourself as a professional punter. The concept of value bets is quite simple but you still need to invest time and research efforts in finding value bets that give you above the average chance to place a profitable bet.
This article will explain what is value betting and will provide you with value betting tips to beat the odds by bookmakers. We will also speak how to spot a value bet, how to calculate the value of a bet and whether it is a good idea to use a value betting software. Also, you should be aware that value betting has nothing to do with arbitrage betting and you still take the risk of a loss when you place a value bet.
Simply put, a value bet is a wager where the sportsbook is offering odds which you are considering to represent a lesser probability to the probability you deem appropriate for this event.
Most betting experts refer to the example of tossing a coin to make value betting explained in a simple way. So, when you toss a coin there is equal chance to have it land on heads or on tails. Hence, you have a probability of 50% each way, which we calculate the following way in decimals:
In other words, we have 50% chance to get heads or tails at the end. This is the simplest method to determine what value a bet represents when researching odds.
No bookmaker in the world will give you odds of 2.00 if a coin toss is involved. Usually, a sportsbook will provide odds in the range of 1.90 for the coin landing either on heads or on tails.
That is how bookmakers make money. If a sportsbook has collected 1,000 on one outcome of a sporting event and another 1,000 on the opposite outcome, they have accepted 2,000 on both the possible results of a game. They will offer odds of around 1.90 on both outcomes, which means they will pay only 1,900 on whatever the outcome is, leaving them with a profit of 100 each way.
And that is why you must find value bets that offer you as profitable odds as possible to place a winning wager. The good news is that free value bets are everywhere. In fact, all value bets are free as far as you are able to identify a bet that offers high value.
Of course, if you are able to identify such a wager among the promotional or free bets offered by a bookmaker, all the better. Nonetheless, a value bet is not a type of bet itself, it is related to your ability to spot odds that offer greater value compared to other odds.
You can pour through all the available odds manually or you can use a value betting program to find free value bets. The best value betting software will work in accordance with preset values entered by you, while you can still find value bets manually when browsing a sportsbook’s website. A gambler develops this skill over time if he is persistent in looking for value bets online.
For instance, you can combine a football betting app and a value betting software to find those odds that meet your criteria for a value bet on football match. Then, you can determine which football match offers value using the formula below or let the software select value bets for you.
We assume Manchester United are playing against a mid-table team and odds are 2.50 for Man United to win. This translates into a 40% chance for United to win, as set by the bookmaker. In contrast, you think that Manchester United’s chances are higher, at 50% or more.
You then use the following formula to calculate the value of the bet in accordance with your estimated outcome probability.
(Your probability multiplied by the decimal odds by the bookmaker) minus 100%, or in your case:
You should use the formula to identify also bets that do not offer value. These are those bets where the probability you think is appropriate is below the 40% chance of win set by the bookmaker. In this case, odds of 2.50 will not offer any value.
The easiest method for finding value bets is to use a value bet finder or specialized value betting software. Value betting by RebelBetting is one of many software tools that compare dozens of bookmakers and a large number of odds to offer you value bets.
The problem is that such software tools are available for anyone to use. Hence, you need to be either very fast in placing bets before the odds change and stop represent value or you need to find value bets in the good old way i.e. finding them by yourself.
A good value betting strategy is to find a team whose current form does not reflect their actual results and standings. Most often than not, bookmakers will underestimate such a team, which in turn results in good value for bets on them to win. It might be a risky approach, as you need to determine the exact moment their fortunes will turn in the opposite direction but no one has said that value bets are risk free.
You can also find value bets when you check the odds very early. Not all bookmakers are fast enough to react to match news in real time, which increases your chances to place a value wager before the odds change and stop offer value anymore. Such a strategy requires a professional level of commitment because you need to follow all the sports news almost in real time, team and match rumors including.
Value betting is one of the fundamental strategies for a bettor to build a winning betting strategy. Honing your skills in finding and placing value bets requires persistent and continuous efforts, so a good idea is to start with low deposit bookmakers until you are good in spotting value bets.
You can also take advantage of a bookmaker’s free bets to put a value bet strategy to work. It is a good approach for starters as you do not put your own funds at risk but take advantage of bonus bets that do not require depositing of additional funds.
You should also know that advanced value betting strategies are applied not only in sports betting but in games such as poker as well. Actually, you can take advantage of value bets every time you feel the odds undervalue the actual probability for a specific outcome or result to occur.
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